Best Picture
Should win: The Hurt Locker
Will win: Avatar
For awhile, I was on the fence about Avatar for Best Picture. That is, until I found a Pocahontas screenplay treatment with the title and characters crossed out. They were then replaced with "Avatar" and Na'vi names. Turns out, the two movies parallel each other frighteningly well -- until the conclusion; in Avatar's case, the ending is happy. Happier than a Disney kids movie. Upon realizing this, my mind was quickly made up.
The Hurt Locker on the other hand offered an interesting take on its genre, simply because it didn't force itself to take a political stance on the veracity of the war's reason for being (as so many Iraq-themed productions feel obligated to do).
Best Actor:
Should win: Jeremy Renner
Will win: Jeff Bridges
Renner managed to embody just about every 20-something I know who's done a tour in Iraq, while miraculously conveying why a fractured soul (fractured at the hand of the war, mind you) might ultimately choose to return to the trenches. That said, I have firmly believed for some time now that Jeff Bridges is vastly underestimated, so I wouldn't mind seeing him receive recognition. I might even shed a tear when/if he wins.
Best Actress:
Will win: Sandra Bullock
Should win: Meryl Streep
Julia Child is one of the most iconic personalities of our time, but I managed to forget the real McCoy within moments of seeing Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia. Really though, as long as Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep don't make out tonight, I'm fine with whatever the result.
Best Director:
Should win: James Cameron
Will win: James Cameron
Yes, Bigelow is a serious contender for breaking the gender barrier in this category, and people's excitement for this possibility has her gaining critical momentum in recent weeks, but I suspect Cameron will get a wealth of votes here from people who recognize that Avatar was an amazing accomplishment, but are too stubborn to give it the Best Pic nod. This category is their opportunity to make amends. Which is fine by me, since he deserves it; you can say what you will about the quality or depth of the story (I certainly did), but you cannot ignore the near perfection of its visual construction.
RYAN:
Best Picture:
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
For me, this was the year's most difficult category. When I saw The Hurt Locker many months ago, I knew it'd be one of my favorite films of 2009, and was pleasantly surprised it picked up so much steam. I don't think I'd ever seen a movie so smart and so visceral. Sure, Avatar has broken records, pushed film technology to new heights, and shown that James Cameron's still the king of the blockbuster epic, but the guild award results — and my unrelenting optimism — lead me to believe that the top prize will ultimately go to The Hurt Locker.
Best Actor:
Should Win: Jeremy Renner
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
I'm with Lindsay on this one. Renner's subtle, entirely believable performance was easily the year's best. It'll be great, though, to see The Dude pick up his first Oscar. It was long overdue.
Best Actress:
Should Win: Meryl Streep
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
I'll admit it: I haven't even seen Julie & Julia. But I'd be on Team Meryl in this race if she were nominated for reading the phone book. I've never seen anything resembling nuance in any of Bullock's performances, so it's hard to be happy about her almost-certain win tonight. The fact that Bullock (deservingly) picked up two Razzies last night won't make it any easier to stomach.
Best Director:
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Maybe I'm giving too much weight to the guild awards, but given that Bigelow took home the Directors Guild and Producer's Guild's prizes, she should be a lock in this category. Add to that all the buzz she's gotten for being, potentially, the first woman to win the award and you have a narrative Academy voters will be hard-pressed to stop.
DAVE:
Best Picture:
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
It actually wouldn't surprise me if the statue went to The Hurt Locker instead of Avatar. Both have gotten an enormous amount of pub and Locker would actually be more deserving in my mind, but Oscar generally likes to reward the grandiose moneymaking machines (See Titanic, 1997, Gladiator, 2000), and Avatar fits that bill. Of course, what the Academy really should be rewarding is Basterds, an absolutely crazy and brilliant pastiche of World War II epics, 1970s funk and cartoons. The mind of Quentin Tarantino is clearly a bizarre place, but Basterds is a sign that he has truly hit his creative stride. Not only is it his best film yet, but it was, in my opinion, easily the best of 2009. The only film that comes close is Up, which of course has no chance because it will win Best Animated Feature, a category solely created so animated films would never be taken seriously. I hadn't seen up until I borrowed it from my brother, and his first question to me was if it made me cry. The brilliance in it is that as a grown man, that's a perfectly valid question. Up is a movie that combines our childhood wonder with our longing for a deep, emotional connection. The fact that it was made with computers is entirely immaterial to its greatness. Still, neither Basterds or Up will garner serious consideration, but it could be worse. People could still be talking about Up In the Air as if it were watchable.
Best Actor:
Should Win: Jeff Bridges
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
With the exception of Jeremy Renner, this category seems to be loaded with remarkable actors doing unremarkable performances. That's hardly a shot at Renner. He's fantastic in The Hurt Locker, which is pretty much the only role he's ever had aside from the bad guy in S.W.A.T., but with George Clooney and Morgan Freeman already holding their statues, it looks like the Academy has decided it's Bridges' turn. I'm perfectly fine with this considering I spent most of my high school years watching The Big Lebowski, which is essentially the greatest movie of all time. My only thought is that I wouldn't be shocked to see the Academy take a political turn and give the oscar to Colin Firth, but to me that seems like a pretty remote possibility. Crazy Heart gives Jeff Bridges both a chance to finally be recognized and a chance for the baby boomers in the Academy to pat themselves on the back and make them feel relevent.
Best Actress:
Should Win: Anyone but Sandra Bullock
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
If you need one reason as to why I feel this way, see the Keanu Reeves rule. If you need another, see The Blind Side. This is a pretty antiseptic and sappy movie and Bullock's performance fits right in. To me this is an example of Hollywood simply wanting to reward one of its dedicated and good citizens, which Bullock may well be, but her performance is dry and wholly unexciting. Seriously, I'm not even sure her tone of voice changes volume once in the entire movie. The only person in the film who warrants any sort of mention is Jae Head, who plays young son S.J. Tuohy, and even then it's only because he's adorable.
Best Director:
Should Win: James Cameron
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
All too often, Best Director serves as the consolation prize for the Best Picture-worthy film the Academy didn't have the guts to bestow the prize on. This year, it looks like they're going to get it flip-flopped. Don't get me wrong, Bigelow's work in Locker is brilliant, and her ability to create tension as well as the film's closing adrenaline rush is phenomenal. Even considering that this is the person who directed Point Break (Keanu Reeves should be a permanent stain on anyone's Oscar credentials) I have no problem with Bigelow taking the award. But the momentum she's riding coming into the ceremony looks more driven by the Academy's desire to break a barrier by finally giving Best Director to a woman and not for the fact that her work in Locker is superior, which it is. Still, putting together a huge epic, such as Avatar, requires an absurd amount of organization and, well, directing. Titanic is hardly one of my favorites -- it still bothers me that L.A. Confidential didn't win that year -- but I can still respect the incredible task undertaken by Cameron in putting that story on the screen. In Avatar he pulls it off again and then some. It is a monumental achievement for Cameron, and this category is where it should be recognized.
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